I am not too big on forecasting human events (though I do read the cards professionally), but when called upon to do so, I get as much information as possible. It’s called “infoition.”
There’s a political scientist (Bruce Bueno di Mesquita), who gets hired to predict for “companies” like the CIA. Apparently, he’s quite successful and it’s all explained in his recent book, “The Predictioneer’s Game.”
I like what he does in breaking any situation down into four elements: who has a stake; what each want; how much they care; and how much influence they have on others. I would do the same.
He then puts number values on these and runs it on all on a computer and it spills out the probabilities. Amazing. I just wonder how he selects those number values. Intuition.
Some professional “intuitives” disdain getting information and to me that is guessing, taking a stab in the dark. When one of those stabs hits and comes true, though not often, it’s hailed as a regular occurrence and super-human status is conferred to the lucky guesser.
I’d rather bet on an “infomaniac.” Get the info!